2025年自动驾驶汽车：技术演进及未来路线图

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Autonomous Vehicles:

Timelineand Roadmap Ahead

WHITE PAPER

APRIL 2025

In collaboration with

Boston ConsultingGroup

Images: Getty Images

Disclaimer

This document is published by the

World Economic Forum as a contribution

to a project, insight area or interaction.

The ﬁndings, interpretations and

conclusions expressed herein are a result

of a collaborative process facilitated and

endorsed by the World Economic Forum

but whose results do not necessarily

represent the views of the World Economic

Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,

Partners or other stakeholders.

reserved. No part of this publication may

be reproduced or transmitted in any form

or by any means, including photocopying

and recording, or by any information

storage and retrieval system.

Contents

Foreword 3

Executive summary 4

Introduction 5

1 Assisted, automated and autonomous personal vehicles 7

2 Robotaxis and roboshuttles 11

3 Autonomous trucks 14

4 An overarching industry agenda 18

Conclusion 21

Contributors 22

Endnotes 24

Autonomous Vehicles: Timelineand Roadmap Ahead 2

Foreword

Over thousands of years transport has always

connected people and expanded their access

toopportunities, consistently growing economies

and advancing societies. Within that ongoing

evolution, autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent

one of transport’s most anticipated developments,

offering the potential to improve road safety, enhance

logistics and enable new mobility services. There are,

however, signiﬁcant technological, regulatory and

operational challenges to realizing those beneﬁts.

AVs must also be carefully integrated into existing

transport ecosystems as mixed trafﬁc conditions

willcreate complexities for years to come.

It is crucial that the sector’s stakeholders can

base informed decisions on realistic expectations,

yet predictions about the deployment timeline for

autonomous vehicles have tended to be overly

optimistic. While vehicle automation technology has

advanced considerably, its large-scale integration

will take longer than most have anticipated. This

white paper aims to provide a more grounded

perspective on the adoption timeline, addressing

three key use cases of vehicle autonomy between

2025 and 2035: personal vehicles, robotaxis and

autonomous trucks. It strives to answer some of

the key questions of policymakers, business leaders

and the public about these evolving technologies.

The timeline for adopting these innovations

haswide societal implications beyond transport

planning, and addressing these challenges

atanearly stage is essential to a successful

rollout.For example, many workers may struggle

toadapt to changing job requirements. An accurate

timeline can help decision-makers better prepare

workforce reskilling programmes. Data privacy and

cybersecurity must also be prioritized; autonomous

vehicles gather vast amounts of real-time and,

to some extent, sensitive data, about what is

happening in the vehicle and its surroundings.

Equitable access to vehicle automation technology

is critical, too: AV development must enable more

holistic and inclusive mobility systems instead

ofexacerbating existing transport inequalities.

Widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will

remain slow, but the decisions made today will

shape how this technology integrates into society

tomorrow. Governments, industry leaders and civil

society need to collaborate to ensure that societal

needs are met and that autonomous vehicles

contribute to a more efﬁcient, sustainable and

inclusive mobility landscape.

Jeremy Jurgens

Managing Director,

World Economic Forum

Nikolaus Lang

Managing Director

andSeniorPartner,

BostonConsulting Group

Autonomous Vehicles: Timelineand Roadmap AheadApril 2025

Autonomous Vehicles: Timelineand Roadmap Ahead 3

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