（英）中国自动驾驶出租车市场商业化之路-高华证券

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3.0 钢铁侠 2025-05-25 121 4.06MB 33 页 免费
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Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should
be aware that the rm may have a conict of interest that could aect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certication and other
important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by
non-US aliates are not registered/qualied as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
EQUITY RESEARCH | May 6, 2025 | 6:21AM HKT
With 500,000 Robotaxis expected to be operating across 10+ cities in China by 2030, we believe the question is
no longer if L4 autonomous technology is ready, but one of how companies will commercialize the rapid pace of
autonomous development. We see Robotaxis as one of the earliest and most visible avenues to
commercialization of the autonomous technology, with growing consumer acceptance across large Tier 1 cities,
a tightening supply of human drivers as the eets mature and drivers retire, and with Government and insurance
industry as enablers to support growth. We see both a sizeable TAM opportunity ahead – US$47bn by 2035, as
well as a path to protability, modelling positive gross margins in early 2026 for Tier 1 cities. Key factors to
watch:
Decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms: Our forecast for China’s Robotaxi TAM of $47bn by 2035E vs. 1
$54mn in 2025 is driven by decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms and lowering operating costs for eet
owners. The form factor is a swing factor: Robotaxis have the potential to transform productivity of time spent
in cars, turning vehicles into entertainment hubs or private workspace, gains that may signicantly increase
consumer demand. Supportive Government policies/licensing, and the development of insurance for the
industry are both needed to support growth. Accident rates remain a crucial swing factor for expanding
customer acceptance and reputation risk.
Unit economics turning protable, encouraging more suppliers: By 2035E, we expect revenues per Robotaxi 2
in Tier-1 cities to reach $31,000, higher than current ride hailing vehicles, due to longer operating hours and
ecient route planning. We model positive gross margin at the vehicle level by 2026E/2031E/2034E in T1/ T2/
other cities.
Companies best positioned to benet from the ecosystem development: Robotaxi players (Pony AI, Baidu), 3
key semiconductor and component suppliers (Horizon Robotics, Will Semi, SICC, AAC, BYDE, Luxshare, Largan,
Hesai), Car OEMs that own smart driving technologies (Tesla, Xpeng, Honda).
Read more: Robotaxi updates on Tesla, Pony AI and Baidu.
Allen Chang
+852 2978-2930
allen.k.chang@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681
verena.jeng@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Mark Delaney, CFA
+1(212)357-0535
mark.delaney@gs.com
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Ronald Keung, CFA
+852-2978-0856
ronald.keung@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Global Technology
Robotaxi
China’s Robotaxi market - the road to commercialization
Xuan Zhang
+852-2978-1478
xuan.zhang@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930
allen.k.chang@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681
verena.jeng@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Mark Delaney, CFA
+1(212)357-0535
mark.delaney@gs.com
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Ronald Keung, CFA
+852-2978-0856
ronald.keung@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Kota Yuzawa
+81(3)4587-9863
kota.yuzawa@gs.com
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Lincoln Kong, CFA
+852-2978-6603
lincoln.kong@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Tina Hou
+86(21)2401-8694
tina.hou@goldmansachs.cn
Goldman Sachs (China)
Securities Company Limited
Thomas Wang
+852-2978-1697
thomas.wang@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Eric Sheridan
+1(917)343-8683
eric.sheridan@gs.com
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Ben Miller
+1(917)343-8674
benjamin.miller@gs.com
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Contributing Authors
China Robotaxi TAM Snapshot 3
Ecosystem: Supply chain of Robotaxi 4
China Robotaxi TAM in details 5
Global Robotaxi TAM scenarios 6
(1) Market size? 700x China Robotaxi TAM growth in the next 10 years 6
(2) Penetration? 25% by 2035 to fill the labour gap of taxi drivers 7
(3) Elements of success? Technology and experience 9
(4) Revenues generation? Up to $31k per vehicle in tier-1 cities by 2035E 9
(5) Costs reduction? Down to $19k per vehicle in tier-1 cities in 2035E 10
(6) Unit economics? Profit making by 2026E/ 31E/ 34E in Tier-1/ -2 / other cities 12
(7) Operating leverage? Increasing operating profits as business scales 13
(8) Downside risk? Profitability is sensitive to competition 14
(9) Downside risks? Accidents can damage reputation 15
(10) Where to find Robotaxis? 10+ cities with Robotaxi services in China 15
(11) Policy progress? Supportive policies with more operating areas 16
(12) Insurance support? Still in early stage of development 18
(13) Reasons to use Robotaxi? A new riding experience with entertainment 18
(14) Future form factors? Without steering wheels, but with robotic arms, AI and drones 19
(15) Future market segmentation? Widening choice of car models 20
(16) Potential up-scaling methods? Collaboration with riding platforms 21
(17) Potential up-scaling methods? Shared-ownership to encourage adoption 22
(18) What to improve? Density and fleet coverage 23
(19) What to improve? Cleaning and maintenance 23
(20) What to improve? Algorithm enhanced by world model 24
(21) How to evaluate safety? Sensors, driving styles and emergency measures 25
(22) How to enhance safety? Combined effort in software, hardware, and regulations 25
(23) Stock ideas 26
Disclosure Appendix 29
6 May 2025 2
Goldman Sachs Global Robotaxi
Table of Contents

标签： #自动驾驶 #自动驾驶出租车 #商业

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