全球经济展望：2025年终盘点与未来趋势

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Global Outlook

Q4 update

September 2025

BlackRock

CAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, AUSTRIA, GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY, LIECHTENSTEIN,

IRELAND, SPAIN, PORTUGUAL, BELGIUM, UK, LUXEMBOURG, SWITZERLAND, NETHERLANDS, NORWAY, FINLAND, SWEDEN, DENMARK, ISRAEL, SOUTH AFRICA, HONG KONG,

SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.

BlackRock

Investment

Institute

BIIM0925E/M-4833061-1/24

Staying pro-risk through April’s volatility worked well

Equities across the world rebounded from April’s tariff-driven plunge. We argued immutable economic

laws would rein in a maximal stance on tariffs and policy, paving the way for a sharp rebound.

Regional equity performance, 2025

The figures shown relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index.

Capital at risk. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, MSCI, with data from LSEG Datastream, September 2025. Note: The chart shows different components of total returns for various regional indexes in local currency – except for emerging markets. Indexes used: MSCI China,

MSCI EM $, MSCI UK, MSCI EMU, MSCI Japan and MSCI USA.

CAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA,

SELECT COUNTRIES IN EUROPE (SEE THE FULL DISCLAIMER), ISRAEL, SOUTH AFRICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.

FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.

U.S.

Euro area

Japan

EM (US$)

China

100

110

120

130

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep.

Index level (rebased to Apr. 8 = 100)

BIIM0925E/M-4833061-2/24

U.S. post-WWII peak

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Share of GDP

U.S. France UK Italy Germany

Pressure builds on long-term bonds across developed markets

Long-term government bond yields are under renewed pressure as fiscal concerns have become a bigger market

driver. Yields in Japan, France and the UK have surged to multi-decade highs.

Debt

-to-GDP ratios, 1970-2030

Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, IMF, U.S. Congressional Budget Office

(CBO) with data LSEG Datastream, September 2025. Note: The chart shows general government gross debt as a share of GDP for the

U.S., France, UK, Italy and Germany. Future estimates are from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Data for Italy only starts from 1988.

Estimate

CAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA,

SELECT COUNTRIES IN EUROPE (SEE THE FULL DISCLAIMER), ISRAEL, SOUTH AFRICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.

FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.

-year government bond yields, 2000-2025

The figures shown relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock

Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, September 2025. Note: The lines show the 30-year government bond yields for the

UK, U.S., France, Italy and Japan.

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Yield

UK U.S. France Italy Japan

BIIM0925E/M-4833061-3/24

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