高盛交易员：人工智能-成与不成”的争论将在多个季度内无法定论

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3.0 云中客 2025-10-14 120 1.72MB 12 页 免费
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By Bobby Molavi, Goldman managing director and macro trader
·
Skeptics sounds smart. Optimists get rich. Well, we’re in a world which pays to glass half full
and where the optimists have feasted.
Another saying that springs to mind is noise vs signal. I don’t think I've every seen an
environment with more noise that gets in the way of signal.
The big levers remain unchanged: lower rates, AI belief, consumer holding up, full employment
and a debasement trade driving cash into a variety of assets (equities, gold, bitcoin). The noise
around all of this is perpetual and extreme. Will AI or wont it? Does the deficit matter or not? Is
de-dollarisation a big deal? Is globalisation dead? Diversification or narrowness? Etc, etc, etc.
Where are we? In a 15 year plus bull market, with no sustained draw down is where. All time
highs printing like they are going out of fashion and all risk assets benefiting from a variety of
tailwinds. The S&P and Nasdaqhave now traded above its 50 day moving average for 106 and
107 sessions respectively. Retail continues to chase, with US retail being net buyers 21 of
the last 24 weeks...retail has been net buyers of ETFs 183 of the last 185 trading days...and we
2025/10/7 21:59 Goldman Trader: The AI "Will It, Won't It" Debate Won't Be Decided For Many Quarters | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-ai-will-it-wont-it-debate-wont-be-decided-many-quarters 1/13
continue to see a huge amount of single stock options buying (more on that later).
15
500
106 107 50 24
21 …… 185 183 ETF ……
Total call option volumes have averaged 40m contracts per day for the last 20 days, for the
most on record, and double what we had 3 years ago. Also call options as a share of all
options traded hit 65% on Wednesday. We saw the S&P and Nasdaq print all time highs on
Wednesday despite 57% and 51% of their respective constituents trading down on the
day….and we rounded out the week with more all time highs.
20 4000 3
65% 57% 51%
……
Tech is clearly at the forefront of this generational rally. Tech and tech related stocks are now
56% of the US stock market. The US is ever increasingly skewing towards a market that is a
play on Tech/innovation/AI. The defensive stocks now only account for 16% of the US
market... which is the lowest reading on record. On top of this we see the large vs small, the
growth vs value, the momentum vs the rest all skewing vs any historic metric you care to
mention. Like a night out at 3am, you never think it's a good time to go home... you think the fun
is going to last forever... it is always the right decision to party on and deal with the hangover
tomorrow. Until the hangover hits. But there is almost always a hangover, just about when
not if.
56%
16%……
3
…… ……
Last week we saw higher octane moves from ‘most shorted’ and ‘non profitable tech’
segments (both up around 8% on the week) as well as future as a theme continuing to rip with
2025/10/7 21:59 Goldman Trader: The AI "Will It, Won't It" Debate Won't Be Decided For Many Quarters | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-ai-will-it-wont-it-debate-wont-be-decided-many-quarters 2/13
nuclear, quantum, drones and all things AI. Tony P highlighting this with the shocking quarter
to day moves for some of these ‘themes: the drone theme (GSXUDRON +99% QTD),or
quantum computing (GSXUQNTM+60% QTD).
“ ” “ ”
8%
·P “ ” GSXUDRON
99% GSXUQNTM 60%
The GS High vs Low Short Interest pair (GSPUWSHI) had another violent squeeze and is
experiencing its best month since the meme event in 2021 and reminding everyone the price
of being a cynic. We saw similar price action in the non-profitable tech vs Quality spread, as for
now ’junkier’ more speculative segments of the market rule.
GSPUWSHI 2021 “
”
“ ”
AI:Horseman 1. I read a research report that cited $2.8 trillion in hyper scaler capex through to
2029 and $5.5 trillion in global capex over the same period: a 56% 5 CAGR. At the end of the
2025/10/7 21:59 Goldman Trader: The AI "Will It, Won't It" Debate Won't Be Decided For Many Quarters | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-ai-will-it-wont-it-debate-wont-be-decided-many-quarters 3/13

标签： #人工智能

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高盛交易员：人工智能-成与不成”的争论将在多个季度内无法定论.pdf

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