新经济中工作的四个未来__2030年的AI与人才

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Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series

Four Futures for Jobs

in the New Economy:

AI and Talent in 2030

WHITE PAPER

JANUARY 2026

Images: Adobe Stock

Disclaimer

This document is published by the

World Economic Forum as a contribution

to a project, insight area or interaction.

The ﬁndings, interpretations and

conclusions expressed herein are a result

of a collaborative process facilitated and

endorsed by the World Economic Forum

but whose results do not necessarily

represent the views of the World Economic

Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,

Partners or other stakeholders.

reserved. No part of this publication may

be reproduced or transmitted in any form

or by any means, including photocopying

and recording, or by any information

storage and retrieval system.

Contents

Executive summary 3

1 Introduction 5

2 Four futures for jobs in2030 7

3 Implications for businesses 14

4 How businesses can prepare today for anyscenario 16

Contributors 17

Endnotes 19

Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy: AI and Talent in 2030 2

Executive summary

The rapid commercialization of emerging technologies

is reshaping workﬂows, business models andtalent

pipelines. As artiﬁcial intelligence (AI) shifts from

experimentation to integration, the pace and trajectory

of its advancement deepen the uncertainty about

itsimplications on businesses, workers and the

global

economy.

The views of business executives on the impact

of AI vary too: globally, about 54% expect AI to

displace existing jobs, and 24% said AI will create

new jobs. Nearly 45% also cited an increase in

proﬁt margins as a likely impact of AI, and only

12%expect it to lead to higher wages.

The future of workplaces and value chains will not

be deﬁned by the technologies alone. Human capital

strategies and investments prioritized today will

determine how well societies and individual businesses

can adapt to – and lead in – the new economy.

Turning uncertainty into foresight

The World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Global

Economy Dialogue Series uses scenario analysis

and cross-industry dialogue to help decision-

makers navigate global economic developments

and their implications for strategy and investment

decisions.

This white paper consolidates the views

and insights

from the members of the Forum’s Chief

Strategy Ofﬁcers Community and other experts

across the

Forum’s Industry Communities and Global

ForesightNetwork.

This second edition in the series explores how AI

advancements and talent trends, and their potential

trajectories until 2030, could shape the future

of jobs, with varying implications for corporate

strategies and investment decisions.

Four scenarios for the future

ofjobs in 2030

Taken together, AI advancement and talent

development vectors generate the following

fourscenarios for the future of jobs in 2030.

1 Supercharged Progress: Exponential AI

breakthroughs reshape industries, business

models and workﬂows. Productivity soars and

innovation ﬂourishes. Widespread AI readiness

allows people to harness the “agentic leap”,

adapt to AI-centric economies and partially

contain displacement. Many jobs have

disappeared, but new occupations emerge

and scale fast, in part with humans directing

portfolios of capable machines and becoming

agent orchestrators. Social safety nets, ethics

and governance frameworks struggle to keep

up with the pace and scale of change.

2 The Age of Displacement: Exponential AI

advancement outpaces the capacity of the

workforce to adapt. Businesses race to

automate as a stopgap, displacing workers

faster than education and reskilling systems can

respond. Agentic AI takes over key processes,

creating a productivity upsurge, but also new

risks. Economies race ahead technologically

butfracture socially: unemployment spikes,

consumer conﬁdence erodes and governments

face mounting societal risks and instability.

3 Co-Pilot Economy: Gradual AI progress and

availability of AI-ready skillsets shift the focus

towards augmentation rather than mass

automation. The AI hype of the 2020s has

given way to pragmatic integration: most

industries see incremental transformation as

human–AI teams reshape value chains.

Countries and businesses that invested early

in training, mobility, digital infrastructure and AI

governance have created conditions to absorb

and advance emerging technologies.

4 Stalled Progress: Steady AI progress meets

aworkforce lacking critical skills. Productivity

growth is patchy, and businesses lean on

automation to backﬁll scarce talent. Gains

concentrate within businesses and geographies

with AI expertise, while others face eroding

competitiveness. Displacement hits primarily

routine roles, while the value of skilled trades

and manual occupations increases. The hope

of AI-enabled prosperity fades into frustration,

as adoption gaps fuel inequality, create a

bifurcated economy and limit growth.

Foresight provides a lens to explore critical

uncertainties and shape strategies to

navigate and harness transformative shifts.

Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy: AI and Talent in 2030 3

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